Ha Ha Ha ฮา No อ่ะคร๊า ฮา
"Which means key projects will have to wait for the new government to make the call."
http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/236563/stalled-request-for-subs-sinks-rtn-trust-in-prawitThe navy's 7.7-billion-baht plan to procure six second-hand, U-206A submarines made in Germany failed to reach the cabinet meeting on May 3, due to Gen Prawit's decision. Now it is beyond anyone's guess when the matter will have the chance to be placed on a cabinet agenda again, because the Lower House has been dissolved and the current government has been transformed to that of a caretaker till a new administration is formed after the July 3 general election. Which means key projects will have to wait for the new government to make the call.
Gen Prawit's decision not to push for cabinet approval of this project before Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva dissolved Parliament, has raised eyebrows among key figures in the navy, who want to know: "What is wrong with this project?."
When asked about this, Admiral Kamthorn politely avoided saying anything that could be construed as a direct confrontation with the defence minister. But what he did say still reflected his dissatisfaction in the matter.
"I forwarded the proposal to the permanent secretary's office in the Defence Ministry early in April. I have no idea why it didn't get to the cabinet meeting. Go ask the ministry about this," he said. "I've already done my best, but my best still means another failure for the navy in getting submarines."
Gen Noppadon Inthapanya, secretary to Gen Prawit, confirmed that the submarine project had missed the train this time. "The [submarine] procurement proposal has not reached me. So how can I forward it to the defence minister?" he asked.
The bid to equip the navy with submarines began when Banharn Silpa-archa was prime minister in 1995. Back at that time, Kockums of Sweden were the prime target. But alleged corruption by politicians and middlemen who wanted to pocket money from the project led to the deal being sunk.
Ten years later, the navy renewed its attempt with a proposal to buy used submarines from China under the Thaksin Shinawatra administration. But the military coup on Sept 19, 2006 killed that bid.
"This is the third try and the third failure for the navy. I think the issue is now over," Adm Kamthorn said.
At least the project is not likely to become reality during his tenure, as the admiral retires at the end of September. A new government will be formed while he is still in the top position at the navy, but realistically the procurement plan will not make it before his retirement. The chances might be discouraging if the Democrat Party comes back to run the country again, with the same defence minister.
"If the Democrat Party retains its administrative power and keeps Gen Prawit as the defence minister, the navy will have no hope of buying second-hand submarines from Germany," a source in the navy said.
Why did Gen Prawit put this project on hold? Nobody knows, but rumours have spread that Gen Prawit preferred buying two new submarines to used ones whose lifespan would be no more than 10 years. Another counter-proposal came from South Korea, which offered the new U-209 vessels manufactured by Daewoo with technology from Germany. The defence minister himself took a look at the Korean submarines early last month.
The general's desire does not quite sit with the wishes of the navy. Of course the navy would prefer new submarines, but the new ones would cost more than 26 billion baht, meaning other projects in the navy would have to be frozen to clear the money for the new submarines.
The 500-tonne, U-206 submarine is smaller than the Korean type and perfect for the conditions in the Gulf of Thailand and the navy's mission. Germany had already offered a discount of 2 million baht to the 7.5-billion-baht price tag with other incentives, including 2 billion baht to build a navy dock and base for the submarines.
That included a one-year training programme. The European country said its submarines were used only 5,000 times and could do 20,000 more trips for Thailand if the kingdom agreed to buy. They could be delivered by September 2013.
"The navy realises our limited budget. But we have to set aside a budget for the submarines because our forces need to study this technology and our neighbours already have it," the same source said.
The navy's big disappointment is due to its high expectations that the Democrat-led coalition government respected Gen Prawit and had already approved many military projects forwarded by the defence minister to the cabinet. But not the submarine proposal.
That is why the navy has bitter feelings about the defence minister, especially after seeing the army of Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha and the air force led by ACM Itthaporn Subhawong enjoying new military equipment pushed by Gen Prawit.
The army will get 121 Ukraine armoured vehicles worth more than 5 billion baht, another 49 main battle tanks model T-84 Oplot, also from Ukraine and 5 mine clearance vehicles costing 7.1 billion baht.
The air force will get 6 more Gripen fighters worth 17 billion baht to complete the 12-plane squadron. It already has received a 6.9-billion-baht budget to upgrade the F16 jets.
As far as the navy is concerned, its budget is minimal. It has 2.9 billion baht to repair two frigates and another 355 million baht for the counter-piracy task force in Somalia. What it really misses are the submarines.
The submarine dream is now up to the new navy chief who will be promoted to succeed Adm Kamthorn, and up to whoever leads the new government.
This fiscal year will see a sweeping change as all the "Six Jaws" holding key positions in the navy are due for retirement. That will pave the way for a major reshuffle, including the most watched position now held by Adm Kamthorn.
The navy has eight candidates vying for the top post. All are of admiral rank. They include Yutthana Fukpholngam, Surasak Runruengrom, Damrongsak Haocharoen, Apiwat Sriwatthana, Veerapol Kitsombat, Rungrat Boonyarattanaphan, Saksit Cherdbunmaung and Amornthep Na Bangchang.
Whoever becomes the new navy leader will have to pursue the controversial submarine project - with a lesson to learn from Adm Kamthorn. The army and air force has thrown full support behind the Democrats and have shown this by their determination to tame the red shirts.
Adm Kamthorn has tried to avoid any partisan position by staying neutral in politics, with a small role in cracking down on United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship's demonstrators in May last year. The present navy leader is believed not to agree with the decisive measures used against the anti-government protesters. That could have put him out of favour with the government and with Gen Prawit. For which the navy has had to pay the price, as it has received no favours from either the defence minister or the government.
Adm Kamthorn is also a classmate of ousted prime minister and fugitive from justice Thaksin Shinawatra. Both belonged to Class 10 at the Armed Forces Academies Preparatory School. He might have been viewed by anti-Thaksin figures as a "watermelon" soldier - just like what Supreme Commander Gen Songkitti Jaggabatara is facing now. The reality is that he does not favour the red shirts, but suspicions among the government led to his limited role with the administration.
All this may have led to the stalled submarine project. But if Thaksin's Pheu Thai Party returns to power after the election, Adm Kamthorn might even see his wish come true before he leaves office. Who knows?
Pheu Thai will certainly not seek any "revenge" against the navy. The army and air force are a different matter.
However one may look at it, political alliances and the arms procurement issue cannot be seen as being totally separate and unconnected issues.
